AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia Conflict & Health Risks: Fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray has intensified around Mekelle, with reports that Tigrayan forces temporarily withdrew and residents saw government control and mobile services return in parts of the city—raising fresh fears of a wider humanitarian crisis across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara. Humanitarian Strain: The UN warns worsening security is disrupting aid operations, with concerns the region could slide back toward the kind of mass suffering seen in 2020–22. Somalia–Ethiopia Security Link: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF troops from Somalia to refocus on the reopened war in Tigray, while Mogadishu says it was not informed—an issue that could affect stability and access to care in areas like Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan. Ebola Response in DR Congo: France says it will step up support to contain a major Ebola outbreak in eastern DR Congo, where more than 4,000 people have died—an important reminder for regional preparedness and rapid health response.

Ethiopia Conflict & Health Risks: Tigray rebels temporarily withdrew from Mekelle as fighting with federal forces moves closer, with residents reporting pro-government control and mobile services returning in parts of the city; aid groups warn the renewed violence could trigger another major humanitarian crisis across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, with Doctors Without Borders reporting a surge in wounded needing treatment. Regional Spillover: Ethiopia’s renewed clashes are raising fears of wider instability in the Horn of Africa, as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing rebel fighters—denials followed—while the UN warns humanitarian operations are being disrupted. Somalia Security & Access: Reports say Ethiopia may pull more than 3,000 ENDF soldiers from Somalia, while fighting around Baidoa and other areas continues to strain protection for civilians and international missions. Somaliland-Linked Politics: In Las Anod, the federal government began paying over 2,500 soldiers in Somalia’s North East State, including recruits from Sanaag, highlighting ongoing tensions over recruitment, loyalties, and security along Somaliland’s claimed areas.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: TPLF fighters seized airports in Mekelle, Shire and Axum, with heavy fighting reported in Afar and Amhara; Ethiopian forces later retook Mekelle, raising fears of a renewed civil war and another humanitarian catastrophe. Humanitarian Strain: Doctors Without Borders reported a surge in wounded needing treatment in northern Ethiopia, as clashes spill toward places like Lalibela and the wider Horn faces overlapping crises. Regional Spillover Risks: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting TPLF, while denials and shifting alliances point to a wider regional conflict that could disrupt health services and aid routes. Somalia–Ethiopia Military Link: Reports say Ethiopia may withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF soldiers from Somalia to refocus on the Tigray front, with Mogadishu saying it was not informed—an issue that could affect security and access for clinics and hospitals. Somaliland-Adjacent Security & Pay: In Las Anod, Somalia’s federal government began paying salaries to North East State soldiers, including recruits from Sanaag—an ongoing flashpoint for Somaliland-linked communities and local stability.

Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Explosions and drone strikes in Addis Ababa and renewed clashes in northern Ethiopia are raising fears of a wider regional war, with fighting spreading toward places like Lalibela and humanitarian risks growing as UN warnings mount. Tigray Battlefield Shifts: Analysts say Tigrayan forces moving out of fixed positions like Mekelle and retaking/losing key sites (including airports) may reflect deliberate repositioning rather than simple collapse—important for what it means for civilian safety and access to care. Regional Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked rebels, while denials grow—signals that cross-border tensions could worsen instability and health service disruption. Somalia Security Strain: In Mogadishu and Baidoa, Al Shabab-linked threats and intensified fighting are affecting movement and international operations, with reports of deaths including children and pressure on AUSSOM amid possible funding cuts. Somaliland-Linked Politics: Mogadishu’s campaign into Sanaag and Las Anod includes federal salary payments to soldiers recruited from Sanaag—an escalation that could affect local stability and, indirectly, health access.

Horn of Africa Conflict Spillover: Explosions and drone strikes in Ethiopia’s capital come as renewed clashes between federal forces and Tigray-linked rebels spread toward places like Lalibela, with the UN warning of a looming humanitarian disaster and fears the fighting could pull in wider regional conflicts. Aid and Civilian Harm: Reports describe attacks hitting humanitarian supplies and a surge in wounded needing treatment in northern areas, raising urgent concerns for access to care. Regional Tensions and Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing TPLF fighters, while denials grow as strategic towns change hands. Somalia Security Pressure: In Mogadishu, heavy security escorts for UN vehicles highlight how Al Shabab threats and intensified fighting in areas like Baidoa are straining international operations and support missions. Somaliland-Adjacent Politics: Somalia’s federal government reportedly moved to pay soldiers in Las Anod and recruit forces from Sanaag, a region Puntland claims and Somaliland also contests—an escalation with direct implications for local stability and health access.

Port & security fallout: A new analysis says Somalia’s Jan. 12 annulment of UAE cooperation deals—covering Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo plus security pacts—reflects a wider rupture in Abu Dhabi’s decade-long push to turn fragile coastal areas into a network of ports, airstrips and loyalties, arguing Somaliland is central to the “laboratory” of that strategy. Regional war risk for health: Reports say fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF is intensifying, with accusations of external backing from Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt—raising fears of a wider regional conflict that can quickly disrupt medical access and displacement services. Tigray humanitarian pressure: Coverage notes renewed clashes and a surge of wounded needing treatment in northern Ethiopia, with Doctors Without Borders warning of growing strain on care. Somalia security strain: A separate report describes dangerous conditions for international operations in Mogadishu, with Al Shabab threats and intensified fighting in places like Baidoa—conditions that often spill into shortages of medicines and safe transport. Somaliland-linked politics: Another story says Mogadishu has moved its campaign against Puntland into Sanaag, including federal salary payments to soldiers recruited from Sanaag—an escalation that can affect local stability and health service delivery.

Ethiopia–Tigray conflict and spillover risk: Renewed fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF has intensified across northern regions, after a drone strike burned a truck carrying over 41 tons of food aid in northwestern Tigray and days later Tigrayan forces seized multiple airports—raising fears of a wider regional flare-up that could disrupt movement, services, and access to care. Regional interference claims: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting TPLF, while denials followed as strategic towns like Erebti were reported captured in Afar; Doctors Without Borders reported a surge in wounded needing treatment in the north. Somalia security and humanitarian pressure: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF troops from Somalia to refocus on the Tigray fight, while in Mogadishu and beyond Al Shabab-linked insecurity and clashes continue to strain AUSSOM operations and endanger civilians, including children. Somaliland-relevant governance and pay: In Las Anod, Somalia’s federal government began paying first salaries to over 2,500 soldiers in the North East State, including recruits from Sanaag—an issue that touches Somaliland’s territorial claims and could affect local stability and health service continuity.

Ethiopia–Tigray conflict spillover: Fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified, with TPLF forces capturing strategic towns and MSF reporting a surge in wounded needing treatment—raising fears of a wider regional flare-up. Regional blame game: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF, while denials grow as the conflict spreads beyond Tigray into Afar and Amhara. Humanitarian hit: A drone strike burned a truck carrying over 41 tons of food aid for displaced people in northwestern Tigray, underscoring how aid routes are becoming targets. Somalia security pressure: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF troops from Somalia to refocus on the Tigray war, while Al Shabab continues to threaten areas beyond Mogadishu and strain AUSSOM operations. Somaliland-relevant trade link: A report notes Ethiopia may look toward Somaliland’s Berbera port as regional instability disrupts access and options for trade routes. Local governance & health access: In Las Anod, federal salaries reportedly began reaching over 2,500 soldiers recruited in Sanaag, a move that could affect local stability and service delivery in contested areas.

Northern Ethiopia conflict and aid risks: Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF has intensified, with accusations flying and clashes spreading beyond Tigray into Afar and Amhara. A drone strike reportedly hit a truck carrying over 41 tons of food aid for displaced people, and Tigrayan forces later seized multiple airports—raising fears of a wider humanitarian and health crisis. Regional spillover and health pressure: Doctors Without Borders (MSF) reported a surge in wounded people receiving treatment in northern areas, as violence escalates. Somalia security and humanitarian access: In Mogadishu, UN operations face heavy security threats as Al Shabab remains active outside the capital; fighting has also intensified around Baidoa, with reports of deaths including children. Ethiopia–Somalia troop uncertainty: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF soldiers from Somalia to refocus on the renewed war at home, while Somali officials say Mogadishu was not informed—an issue that could affect stability and access for health services. Somaliland-linked trade and health angle: Analysts note Ethiopia’s trade routes may be pressured by Red Sea disruptions, with Berbera in Somaliland mentioned as a possible alternative—important for medicines and supplies.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace pact, with the TPLF and federal forces trading blame as clashes spread and aid access remains a major concern—raising fears of another health and humanitarian collapse like 2020–2022. Regional Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray rebels, while denials grow as the risk of a wider regional conflict rises. Somalia Security & Health Risks: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 ENDF troops from Somalia, but Mogadishu says it was not told—at a time when Al Shabab continues to threaten areas outside Mogadishu and fighting has intensified around Baidoa, with reports of deaths including children. Somaliland–Taiwan Cooperation: Taiwan says ties with Somaliland are expanding, including cooperation on coast guard work and healthcare, with Somaliland officials attending regional disaster-management events. Health Funding (Global): Direct Relief announced a push to raise $40 million to support safe births worldwide by equipping frontline providers and strengthening local health systems.

Somalia Security & Aid Access: In Mogadishu, UN vehicles move under heavy escort as Al Shabab-linked threats keep international operations tense, with fighting and insecurity also reported around Baidoa and the wider pressure on AUSSOM amid possible funding cuts. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Renewed clashes between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF have shattered the 2022 peace pact, with MSF warning of a surge in wounded needing care—raising risks for regional health systems. Cross-Border Tensions: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked fighters, while denials grow—an escalation that could further disrupt movement of people and medical supplies. Somaliland–Taiwan Health & Coast Guard Ties: Taiwan says cooperation with Somaliland is expanding, including healthcare support and coast guard collaboration, after Somaliland’s Interior and National Security minister met Taiwan officials. Direct Relief Maternal Health Push: Direct Relief announced a $40m campaign to support safe births by equipping frontline providers and strengthening local health systems—relevant to maternal and newborn care priorities across the region.

Red Sea & Health Spillover: Renewed fighting and Red Sea disruption tied to the Iran-linked war are driving a humanitarian squeeze across the Horn. The UN says thousands of Yemeni refugees have reached Djibouti by boat, with numbers expected to rise sharply, and it warns Djibouti’s position near Bab el-Mandeb is becoming a health and displacement risk for nearby Somaliland and Somalia. Ethiopia Conflict, Regional Pressure: Multiple reports say fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified and shattered the 2022 peace pact, with Doctors Without Borders reporting a surge in wounded needing treatment—raising fears of wider instability that can disrupt regional health services and supply routes. Somaliland-Specific Security & Services: In Sanaag-linked Las Anod, Somalia’s federal government reportedly started paying salaries to more than 2,500 soldiers, including recruits from Sanaag—an issue that can affect local stability and access to care. Taiwan Health Cooperation: Taiwan and Somaliland discussed expanding cooperation, including healthcare and coast guard collaboration, with Somaliland invited to disaster-management efforts. Climate & Famine Risk in Somalia: The UN warns El Niño flooding could push millions in Somalia toward famine and worsen waterborne disease risk, with many health centers closed or running at reduced capacity.

Red Sea & Regional Health Risk: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and the TPLF is escalating fears of a wider regional flare-up, with reports noting increased wounded needing treatment—an indirect threat to Somaliland through strained Horn of Africa trade routes and possible spillover into Djibouti and Somalia. Somaliland-Specific Security & Care Access: Somalia’s federal government began paying salaries to more than 2,500 soldiers in Las Anod, including recruits from Sanaag—raising local tensions that can disrupt movement and access to clinics. Disaster & Famine Watch for the Horn: The UN warns El Niño flooding could push 5.4 million people in Somalia toward famine, with many health centers closed or running at reduced capacity—conditions that can worsen cross-border disease risk. Somaliland Recognition & Health Cooperation: Somaliland’s foreign engagement continues, including expanded cooperation with Taiwan that includes healthcare support and coast guard collaboration. Global Maternal Health Funding: Direct Relief announced a $40m push to support 2.5m safe births worldwide, focusing on equipping frontline providers—relevant for Somaliland’s maternal and newborn care priorities.

Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing TPLF fighters as renewed clashes in Afar and Amhara intensify, with reports of TPLF control of the strategic town of Erebti—raising fears of wider regional instability that can disrupt health services and supply routes. Peace Deal Broken: Separate reporting says renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has effectively shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace pact, with coalition-building by the TPLF and partners—an ominous sign for civilians’ access to care. Somaliland–Somalia Tensions: In Sanaag-related developments, Somalia’s federal government reportedly began paying salaries to 2,500 North East State soldiers, including recruits from Sanaag—amid political accusations between Mogadishu and Somaliland-linked authorities. Yemen Refugees, Horn of Africa Pressure: UN agencies warn that escalating Yemen conflict could drive more refugees toward Djibouti and Somaliland, while humanitarian needs grow fast. Flood Risk to Health in Somalia: UN warnings say El Niño rains could push 5.4 million people toward famine and worsen waterborne disease risk, with many health centers already closed or running at reduced capacity. Somaliland in Disaster Cooperation: Taiwan’s foreign minister says cooperation with Somaliland is expanding, including healthcare and coast guard work, and Somaliland is a founding member of a new disaster management alliance.

Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF is intensifying in Afar and Amhara, with officials trading accusations of outside support and reports of towns changing hands—raising fears of renewed regional instability that can disrupt health services and supply routes. Somaliland–Somalia Tensions: In Sanaag-linked areas, Somalia’s federal government has started paying soldiers recruited in the disputed region, a move that could further strain security and increase risks for civilians’ access to care. Yemen Refugees & Health Pressure: UN agencies warn that escalating Yemen conflict is driving more people to Djibouti and Somaliland, adding pressure to already stretched health and support systems. Somalia Flood Risk: The UN warns El Niño rains could push 5.4 million people toward famine, with many health centers closed or running at reduced capacity—plus higher risk of waterborne disease. Somaliland Governance & Accountability: Somaliland lawmakers are seeking an independent probe into the 2024 killing of a Somali civil aviation worker in Mogadishu, a case that has heightened political tensions. Global Maternal Health Funding: Direct Relief announced a $40m push to support 2.5m safe births worldwide, focusing on equipping frontline providers and strengthening local health systems. Taiwan Cooperation: Taiwan’s foreign minister says cooperation with Somaliland is expanding, including coast guard work and healthcare support.

Ethiopia–TPLF Conflict & Health Fallout: Ethiopia’s army says Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing TPLF fighters as renewed clashes in Afar and Amhara intensify, with reports of towns changing hands and Doctors Without Borders warning of a surge in wounded needing treatment—raising fears of wider regional instability that can quickly strain health services. Somaliland–Somalia Tensions: In Sanaag-linked Las Anod, Somalia’s federal government began paying salaries to more than 2,500 soldiers, including recruits from Sanaag, a move that underscores how security and livelihoods are tied to the Somaliland–Puntland–Mogadishu dispute. Red Sea Crisis, Refugees & Spillover: UN agencies warn Yemen’s renewed fighting could worsen displacement across the Horn, with thousands of Yemeni refugees reaching Djibouti and more arriving in Somaliland and Puntland—an immediate public health pressure on clinics, water, and disease prevention. Climate & Famine Risk in Somalia: UN warns El Niño flooding could push 5.4 million people toward famine in Somalia, with many health centers closed or running at reduced capacity. Disaster Preparedness Link: Taiwan launched a new disaster management alliance (WADM) with Somaliland as a founding member, signaling more regional cooperation on emergency response and health resilience. Local Accountability: Somaliland lawmakers are considering an independent probe into the 2024 killing of a Somali civil aviation worker in Mogadishu, a case that has heightened political tensions.